We develop and apply efficient implementations of advanced Bayesian statistical tools and modelling approaches to analyse epidemiological and medical trial data sets, with emphasis on high-dimensional ones. Clinical outcomes can take the form of event times, treatment response, or disease severity. Our methods can detect and map latent association or base hazard rate heterogeneity, correct survival analysis regression outcomes for overfitting, and optimise covariate selections. This enables objective data-driven stratification and reproducible outcome prediction, and leads to optimized individual risk scores and treatment response scores.
Our research is carried out and applied to medical data in partnerships with teams in several UK and international universities and medical centres, mainly within the EU, Japan, and the USA. While our focus is on fundamental methodological innovation, our research themes, summarised below, are strictly driven by the needs of modern personalised (or 'precision') medicine.
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Bayesian latent class analysis of complex epidemiological data describing heterogeneous cohorts, with either time-to-event or ordinal class outcome variables
Bayesian latent class analysis of complex epidemiological data with informative censoring and competing risks
Bayesian data-driven retrospective patient stratification for clinical trial data with inhomogeneous treatment associations
Generation of accurate personalised risk scores and treatment response scores
Overfitting corrections for regression parameters in survival analysis
Cross-validation based optimisation of covariates in Bayesian survival analysis, including covariate multiplexing
Bayesian discriminative analysis for very high dimensional data, based on full analytical evaluation of parameter integrals
Nonlinear dimension reduction and multivariate survival analysis for very high dimensional data
Generation of rigorously unbiased null models for proteomic or transcriptomic signalling networks, with tailored topological characteristics
Bayesian methods for medical image analysis
Traditional and adaptive medical trial design
Tumour infiltration biomarkers and immunotherapy modelling